11.07.2022

Taking on NIMBY towns | Lab boom faces new suburban limits | MassGOP: Cult or political party? | Deluded Pats fans | Down to the wire in NH | Quick Hits | Contrarian Boston |

News tips? Story ideas? Email us at sbvanvoorhis@hotmail.com

The MassGOP is poised to take an historic drubbing come Tuesday. But will it loosen the grip of the state party’s pro-Trump cult?

That’s not clear, with the Republican state party, under renegade chairman Jim Lyons, seemingly intent on committing a Jonestown-style mass suicide at the ballot box.

Geoff Diehl, the state Republican party’s Trumpie standard bearer in the governor’s race, has a less than 1 percent chance of winning, according to FiveThirtyEight, the polling site run by stat guru Nate Silver.

Heading into election day, Attorney General Maura Healey, his Democratic foe, leads Diehl 59-37 percent, for a 22 percent lead, according to numbers provided to Contrarian Boston by veteran pollster Lou DiNatale and his Princeton Research Associates.

At least half a dozen other polls show Healey and other Democratic candidates in statewide races with similar leads.

Yet even as the Dems appear poised to sweep all statewide offices on Tuesday by large margins, a lopsided defeat is unlikely to be enough on its own to dislodge Lyons and his cronies from their positions atop the state Republican party apparatus, or what’s left of it at this point.

The MassGOP appears to be channeling Jim Jones when it comes to political strategy

In fact, one long-time Republican operative with deep experience both in Massachusetts and national politics tells Contrarian Boston that only a seismic, table-overturning event, such as a severe downturn or some other overarching crisis, will be enough to revive the MassGOP’s flagging fortunes.

Still, hoping for a national crisis - or that Dems will royally screw things up after taking complete control of the both the legislative and executive branches of state government - doesn’t seem like much of a strategy.

But maybe, just maybe, change won’t be so glacial. Lyons is up for reelection as state party chair in January, and beleaguered moderates from the Charlie Baker wing of the MassGOP will be looking to oust the leader who has brought so much disaster and disgrace to the once-proud Massachusetts Republican brand.

Local fans still putting their faith in the Patriots. Other teams? Not so much.

That’s the verdict from DiNatale’s Princeton Research. A fifth of Massachusetts residents surveyed say the Pats are the local team most likely to win a championship next year, the firm found during its recent governor’s race poll (see above).

Given the Pats sputtering offense, that seems highly optimistic, though the poll was taken in mid-October during the height of “Zappe fever,” when backup quarterback Bailey Zappe led the Pats to consecutive wins over the lowly Browns and Lions.

The Pats back in the Brady glory days (photo by Jack Newton)

The Bruins came in second, at 13 percent - not surprising given the team’s hot start.

But here’s the real puzzler: More fans see the RED SOX winning it all next year than the Celtics, who came within two games of securing the NBA championship.

For those with short memories, the Sox came in dead last in the AL East, missing the playoffs and racking up a losing record.

Go figure.

Off limits: New Natick lab regulations ban potentially hazardous research

As the life sciences sector pushes into the suburbs, this could prove to be a really big deal.

Natick health officials are declaring the town off-limits to Level 3 and Level 4 labs dealing with infectious agents and deadly diseases, while putting restrictions on animal testing.

Potentially lethal and airborne “infectious agents or toxins” are the bailiwick of BLS-3 labs, while BLS-4 labs study infections and life-threatening diseases for which there are no vaccines or treatments, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

The new regulations, which apparently were completed last month but have not been posted online, come as the life sciences sector expands outward into the suburbs from its cramped confines in Cambridge and Boston.

In an interesting twist, the regulations do not bar new labs from being built near residential structures, but it does hold out the possibility the developer might have to provide additional ventilation, among other items.

That, in turn, is likely to have an impact on a hotly contested plan to convert the Neiman Marcus at the Natick Mall into a lab complex, which would literally take shape next door to the Nouvelle luxury condo high-rise.

The regulations also restrict testing on “warm-blooded animals,” unless the lab receives accreditation from the The Association for Assessment and Accreditation of Laboratory Animal Care, a non-profit that promotes humane treatment of lab animals.

Hard to argue with that.

As some suburbs balk at new apartments, a pro-housing group plans big push

Can a fast-rising nonprofit dedicated to tackling the state’s housing woes turn NIMBY suburbs into YIMBY suburbs?

We’ll see, but Abundant Housing Massachusetts is ready to give it a shot. Founded in 2020, AHMA is gearing up to get the word out to towns and suburbs across the Boston area about the MBTA Communities law, which requires local communities to open their doors to apartments and condos near T stations.

Armed with a $500,000 grant from the Barr Foundation, AHMA plans to hire two new full-time organizers to “develop outreach and education campaigns” in support of the new law.

Getting the message out: Abundant Housing Massachusetts Executive Director Jesse Kanson-Benanav and Statewide Organizer Kassie Infante

The organizers will work with existing YIMBY groups as well as launching new pro-housing organizations, while also providing stipends to volunteers and digital organizing tools.

The grant will also help pay for opinion polling research designed to help housing activists and local officials design more effective “strategic marketing campaigns” to build support for new multifamily projects.

“By expanding our staff and unique capacity, we will focus on what is most important; deep grassroots organizing and community engagement,'‘ said AHMA Executive Director Jesse Kanson-Benanav, in a press release.

The loudest, most negative voices in the room have long dominated the debate over proposals for new apartment buildings and other housing in towns across Greater Boston. Too often, long-time homeowners driven by unwarranted fear that their property values could take a hit, or just plain prejudice, call the shots.

Here’s hoping Abundant Housing Massachusetts can provide some badly need balance.

Mass Dems manning battle stations - in New Hampshire

With little election drama at home, Mass Dems are going all out in New Hampshire where control of the U.S. Senate could potentially be at stake.

U.S. Secretary of Labor and former Boston Mayor Marty Walsh joined Bay State Congresswoman Katherine Clark over the weekend at a Manchester rally.

Behind the scenes, staffers and volunteers from the Massachusetts Democratic Party have been pitching in as well, working at phone banks and canvasing in the battleground state, Gus Bickford, chair of Massachusetts Democratic Party, told Contrarian Boston.

The push comes with the race too close to call between U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan and Republican challenger Don Bolduc, a retired Army brigadier general whose crazy talk makes Trump look sane.

Bickford said he has also helped place dozens of local volunteers on Democratic campaigns as far afield as Florida, Pennsylvania and Arizona.

“More recently, every election year has been much more important than the election two years ago,” Bickford said. “More people are reaching out.”

Quick Hits:

We’ve heard this one before: “GOP mega-donor says ‘it’s time to move on’ from Trump”  The Hill

NH Gov also says a Trump announcement “will have no effect on anything.” Nice try, but that’s not believable: “Sununu laughs, calls timing of Trump’s potential 2024 presidential bid announcement a ‘terrible idea’” CBS via Boston Globe

Wind is great, but getting these projects built is going to be a lot harder than the green lobby lets on: “State To Wind Energy Developers: Commit Or Back Off”    State House News Service

Crappy trend: “Conventional wisdom is correct: Locally owned businesses are slipping away in Harvard Square”    Cambridge Day

What is Contrarian Boston?

I have fielded emails over the past couple weeks asking what Contrarian Boston is about.

Here’s a link to our mission statement – you can find it in the “about” section.

For a more prosaic, nuts-and-bolts description, read on.

An online newsletter, Contrarian Boston publishes every Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. In Contrarian Boston you’ll find analysis of the day’s news, and original reporting as well.

Our focus is:

·      Politics and all levels of governance, good and bad, with an emphasis on state and local, with some national mixed in;

·      Economic growth and business, especially real estate, housing and new development projects;

·      The media and why it does what it does;

·      Education, from school board spats to the doings of multibillion-dollar university endowments;

·      And whatever else catches our fancy.