Contrarian Boston/Nov. 29, 2021

Today’s edition: Downtown Boston’s empty offices/Omicron makes global debut/Nudity on Nantucket/Governor’s race stuck in neutral/What Contrarian Boston is all about/Seeking contributors

Look for us every Monday, Wednesday and Friday

Trouble ahead for New England’s economic engine as workers stay home

As a reporter, you know it’s time to start digging when the happy talk starts.

By happy talk, I mean implausible claims, contrary to all objective logic, that things are not only fine, but positively, absolutely wonderful!

Think of the old ‘cutting to grow’ or ‘right-sizing’ lines companies often turn to after a big product fail or an expansion gone bad, vainly hoping to spin mass layoffs into a good news story.

Trust me, it only makes things worse.

A case in point are recent stories in the real estate industry press of a supposedly resurgent downtown Boston office market.

“Boston Tops the List of Expanding Office Markets,” crowed GlobeSt. after an upbeat report by commercial real estate firm CBRE.

However, the most important stat right now in our pandemic-plagued economy is not leasing activity, but how many people are actually showing up for work in their downtown Boston offices.

Just 15-to-18 percent of Boston’s office space is actually occupied on any given day now, a number that CBRE breezes by in its report.

That’s up modestly from March, when it was 12 percent, but it is still alarmingly low.

By contrast, the daily occupancy rate for office space in cities around the country is 36%, according to Bisnow, which, to its credit, raised the issue.

Office workers across Greater Boston are voting with their feet, happy to ditch some of the nation’s most grueling commutes for remote or hybrid work.

And that’s bad news everyone who has a stake in downtown Boston, from restaurants, shops and other service businesses to the developers and commercial real estate investors who own the city’s office towers and buildings.

After all, how long will companies continue to spend big dollars in order to rent out empty offices and cubicles?

A lot hinges on the answer to that one.

Just in time for the holidays, a new Covid variant

Barely a week ago, few people beyond researchers and public health experts had ever heard of Omicron.

However, the new, highly-contagious Covid variant has become a household name since news broke over Thanksgiving weekend of its emergence in South Africa.

Omicron’s spread  upended financial markets and has suddenly cast a cloud of uncertainty over everything from holiday shopping to the return to the office (see above).

It also comes as the number of deaths from the pandemic in Massachusetts steadily inches toward the 20,000-mark.

Governments around the world are frantically imposing travel bans, but the moves are likely already too late to stop the new variant’s spread across international borders, the Washington Post notes.

Topless in Nantucket

Is Nantucket ready to become the French Riviera of New England?

Summer feels a long, long way off right now amid the grey skies and increasingly chilly temps of late November.

But some residents on tony Nantucket are already looking ahead to next June and the potential for the island’s pristine beaches to go topless. The Boston Herald, true to form, offers the “skinny” on the situation -their words, not mine.

Nantucket resident Dorothy Stover has filed a proposal for next May’s Town Meeting to revamp town bylaws and allow “any person … to be topless on any public or private beach within the town of Nantucket."

Still, Stover, who notes the change is needed to “promote equality for all persons,” faces an uphill battle.

The proposal has already sparked predictable opposition from the island’s chamber of commerce, warning it could scare off families.

Stover’s top optional proposal would also have to win a two-thirds majority at Town Meeting as well.

Mass. governor’s race a game of chicken?

That’s how the Herald colorfully describes the current standoff between the Gov. Charlie Baker and potential Democratic challenger Attorney General Maura Healey.

Baker and Healey have given new meaning to the word “soon,” with each having spent months dodging reporters asking the ‘will you run’ question.

Healey is considered the Democrats best bet to win in 2022. But whether the budding progressive political star would prevail in a race against Baker, still one of the most popular governors in the country, is an open question.

For his part, Baker has been extremely – maybe even suspiciously - coy on whether he will run for a third term next year.

Right now, it seems pretty clear that Healey is waiting for the governor to make his move – one way or another - before committing.

Should Baker call it a day, Healey would automatically vault to the head of the pack of gubernatorial contenders.

But if Baker decides to go for a third term, then things could start to get dicey for Healey. After all, who remembers the Democratic Lilliputians who tried and failed to unseat Bill Weld or the late Paul Cellucci? Both, like Baker, were popular moderate Republican governors. Or, for that matter, Mitt Romney’s opponent when he won election as governor in 2002?

For the Democrats who were the sacrificial lambs, those races were springboards to political obscurity, resulting in lopsided losses.

Baker’s indecision – whether genuine or just strategic calculation – has effectively frozen the race before it starts.

And as the uncertainty drags on, it is likely to prove to be to Baker’s advantage. In a shorter race, the well-entrenched incumbent will able to raise money faster than any challenger.

“It’s not Baker playing chicken with her, but she seems to be waiting see what he will do before she does anything,” said Daniel Mulcare, chairman of Salem State University’s political science department.

What is Contrarian Boston?

I have fielded emails over the past couple weeks asking what Contrarian Boston is all about.

Here’s a link to our mission statement – you can find it in the “about” section.

For a more prosaic, nuts-and-bolts description, read on.

An online newsletter, Contrarian Boston publishes every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. In Contrarian Boston you’ll find analysis of the day’s news, and original reporting as well.

Our focus is:

·      Politics and all levels of governance, good and bad, with an emphasis on state and local, with some national mixed in;

·      Economic growth and business, especially real estate, housing and new development projects;

·      The media and why it does what it does;

·      Education, from school board spats to the doings of multibillion-dollar university endowments;

·      And whatever else catches our fancy.

Thanks for reading and see you Wednesday.